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"But there's sort of an expectation that these are all tied together," says Duke.

"In order to be part of the tribe, you must agree that you have the same opinion about all of them."This is one of the reasons why changing your mind is so hard: altering a belief may come at the cost of social isolation.3.

“I’m telling you something about what tribe I belong to.” These beliefs don’t necessarily have anything to do with what you think is true about the world—they have to do with signaling what group you belong to.“One of the things that [a] tribe does for you… Groups we belong to can be prescriptive about a number of beliefs, even if those beliefs have no reason to be tied together.

When Trump won the election, people were stunned that polls could be so wrong.But, if you don’t also recognize the amount of luck and chance involved in things that , with helping her understand that you can think of beliefs as “living in two systems.” First, “there’s beliefs as an epistemological system. )The second purpose of beliefs is as a form of expression. From back when we were in these small kinship groups to now when we're a member of a political party or a member of a particular religion or whatever.“When I express my beliefs to you, I’m telling you something about my identity,” says Duke. We're looking for people to tell us what's what.”Unfortunately, that type of tribal thinking can also prevent you from forming your own opinions.A former professional poker player, she knew she’d never get better at poker unless she could admit the moments when she’d screwed up.She also learned that, no matter much she improved, luck and chance would play a role in the outcomes of her bets—she could make the best decision possible given the information at hand, and still lose money.

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